Synthetic Data Examples – Realistic – using AI (SYNDERAI), pronounced /ˈsɪn.də.raɪ/

SYNDERAI — EU Module Calibration Summary

Comparison: US baseline (2026-02-21) → EU calibrated set (2026-05-23) Produced from direct module diff of original-synthea-US-modules-20260221 vs new-synthea-EU-modules-20260523


Overall Summary and Conclusion

Analyzing the list of conditions and their frequency generated by Synthea from Mitre that SYNDERAI used from July 2025 on to create the first set of Synthtic data (Packages version 1.0+ and 2.0+), we can observe that the distribution is not comparable to typical population based diseases. We therefore adapted, replaced and removed the Synthea modules.

Here is the complete summary, distilled directly from the module files.

Top-level change structure: 39 new EU modules added, 53 US modules removed (including the entire veteran block, the opioid pipeline, SNF, homelessness, and SDOH modules), and ~110 modules present in both sets were modified.

Category Count
Modules newly added (EU-specific) 39
US modules removed (replaced or deprecated) 53
Modules present in both but modified ~110

The EU calibration replaced large portions of the Synthea US module set with purpose-built European counterparts, removed all US-specific care-context modules (veterans, SNF, homelessness, SDOH, opioid abuse pipeline), and added new specialty pathways absent from the US baseline.


Disease-by-Disease Changes


1. Hypertension

Module: hypertension.jsonhypertension_europe.json

Overall adult prevalence raised from ~25% (US default) to ~35% (European calibration). Age-stratified onset probabilities were re-derived from survey data. Treatment pathway shifted to ESC/ESH first-line guidance (ACE inhibitors / ARBs preferred; thiazides as add-on). Blood-pressure control targets use the ESC/ESH threshold of <140/90 mmHg.

Age-stratified point prevalence (EU):

Age band Prevalence
18–34 ~7%
35–44 ~18%
45–54 ~33%
55–64 ~50%
65–74 ~65%
75+ ~75%

Sources: WHO Europe Hypertension Fact Sheet (2023); Eurostat EHIS Wave 3 (2019); ESC/ESH 2018 Hypertension Guidelines; GBD 2019 Europe (IHME).


2. Type 2 Diabetes

Module: absent/generic → diabetes_europe.json

Overall adult prevalence calibrated to ~7.5% (IDF Atlas Europe 2021). Prediabetes prevalence set at ~8% of adults. Onset shifted to peak at 45–64 years, reflecting the European age pyramid. First-line therapy is metformin (EASD/ADA 2022 consensus). HbA1c target set to <53 mmol/mol (7.0%) per EASD guidelines. Complication rates derived from EURISC/EURODIAB studies.

Age-stratified prevalence (EU):

Age band Prevalence
20–39 ~1.5%
40–49 ~5.0%
50–59 ~11.0%
60–69 ~18.0%
70–79 ~22.0%
80+ ~23.0%

Sources: IDF Diabetes Atlas 10th Edition (2021); WHO Europe Diabetes Fact Sheet (2022); Eurostat EHIS Wave 3 (2019); EASD/ADA 2022 Consensus; GBD 2019 Europe.


3. COPD

Module: copd.json (non-functional for EU) → copd_europe.json

The original US module produced near-zero COPD in the EU cohort (it required US-specific attributes). Fully rebuilt. Target prevalence ~6.5% of adults (BOLD Europe). Strong post-age-50 weighting (<2% under 50, >10% over 60). Smoking modelled as primary risk factor (~25% EU adults). GOLD staging distribution (GOLD 1–4) from BOLD Europe. Medication pathway follows GOLD 2023 preferred A/B/E steps (LAMA / ICS-LABA / triple therapy). Exacerbation rates from ECLIPSE and TORCH studies.

Calibration round 2 patch: All onset rates reduced by 30% after first run produced ~18% cohort prevalence against a target of ~12–13%.

Sources: ERS White Book (2013); ERS update (2022); BOLD Europe study (Buist et al., Lancet, 2007); GOLD 2023 COPD Guidelines; GBD 2019 Europe; Eurostat EHIS Wave 3 (2019); WHO Europe NCD Report (2022).


4. Asthma

Module: asthma.json (adult + child mixed) → asthma_adult_europe.json

The US module was replaced by an adult-onset-only module for EU purposes. Target prevalence 5–8% EU adults per ERS/GINA 2022. Treatment follows GINA 2022 stepwise protocol (SABA rescue + ICS maintenance). Exacerbation rate modelled at ~0.5–1.5 per year in uncontrolled patients.

Sources: ERS/GINA 2022 Asthma Guidelines.


5. Stroke

Module: stroke.jsonstroke_europe-v2.json

The US stroke module produced a ~10–13% cohort stroke prevalence. The EU v2 replacement targets 2–3% point prevalence (living stroke survivors), consistent with ESO 2022. Key changes:

Sources: ESO Clinical Guidelines (2022); ESO Atlas of Stroke (2022).


6. Myocardial Infarction

Module: myocardial_infarction.json (0% firing rate for EU) → myocardial_infarction_europe.json

The US module reads a mi_risk attribute set only by removed US CVD modules; it never fired in EU context. Rebuilt from scratch. Target 2–3% history-of-MI prevalence in EU adults. STEMI/NSTEMI split: 55%/45% (ESC ACVC Registry 2023). Risk tiers read attributes from the EU IHD and hypertension/diabetes modules. Treatment follows ESC STEMI 2017 and NSTEMI 2020 guidelines (dual antiplatelet + statin + beta-blocker).

Calibration round 2: ConditionEnd states added for STEMI/NSTEMI/MI after acute encounter; chronic "Old MI" (SNOMED 1755008) onset added for EPS problem list.

Sources: ESC Atlas of Cardiovascular Disease (2023); Eurostat CVD statistics; ESC ACVC Registry (2023); ESC STEMI Guidelines (2017); ESC NSTEMI Guidelines (2020).


7. Stable Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD)

Module: stable_ischemic_heart_disease.json (0% firing rate for EU) → stable_ischemic_heart_disease_europe.json

The US module also reads a US-only attribute and produced 0% in EU context. Rebuilt with EU risk-tier logic reading hypertension == true and diabetes == true attributes. Target prevalence ~3–4% EU adults (ESC Atlas 2023). Sets ischemic_heart_disease = true for downstream use by the MI module. First-line medications: aspirin, statin, beta-blocker, nitrate.

Calibration round 2: All annual onset rates halved after initial calibration produced ~20% cohort prevalence.

Sources: ESC Chronic Coronary Syndromes Guidelines (2019); ESC Atlas (2023); EUROASPIRE data.


8. Atrial Fibrillation

Module: atrial_fibrillation.jsonatrial_fibrillation_europe-v2.json

The US module was producing 9–10% AF prevalence independently; combined with the EU v1 module it reached 17% cohort prevalence. Root cause: US module reads atrial_fibrillation_risk attribute set by removed US cardiovascular module, so it was still firing. The US module was removed; only the EU module remains.

v2 bug fixes:

Target cohort AF prevalence: 3–5% (mean age ~52 cohort).

Sources: Lancet Regional Health – Europe (2024); ESC Atlas (2020); ESC AF Guidelines (2020).


9. Congestive Heart Failure (CHF)

Module: congestive_heart_failure.jsoncongestive_heart_failure_eu.json

The clinical state machine (HFrEF/HFmEF/HFpEF; NYHA I–IV; ACC/AHA stages C–D; device therapy) was preserved from the US module. EU calibration changes:

Sources: ESC Heart Failure Guidelines (2021); Savarese & Lund, Card Fail Rev. (2017).


10. Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD)

Module: chronic_kidney_disease.jsonckd_europe_v2.json

Target prevalence 8–12% EU adults (ERA-EDTA 2022). KDIGO 2022 stage definitions (eGFR-based). Risk factors: hypertension, diabetes, age >60. Treatment: RAAS blockade, SGLT-2 inhibitors, dietary management.

v2 changes:

Sources: ERA-EDTA Registry (2022); KDIGO CKD Guidelines (2022); EPIRCE study.


11. Alzheimer's Disease / Dementia

Module: dementia.jsonalzheimers_dementia_europe_v2.json + mci_europe.json

The US dementia module was replaced by a two-module system: mci_europe.json handles all Mild Cognitive Impairment onset and MCI→dementia conversion; alzheimers_dementia_europe_v2.json handles direct dementia onset (cases not preceded by MCI).

v2 changes to the dementia module:

Round 3 patch: Direct dementia rates raised ~10× after the round-2 graph repair unblocked the module and revealed rates were set far below EU references:

Age band Old rate/yr New rate/yr EuroCoDe reference
60–69 0.05% 0.30% ~0.3%
70–79 0.15% 1.50% ~1.4%
80–89 0.50% 4.50% ~4.4%
90+ 1.00% 9.00% ~9%

MCI module (mci_europe.json): Prevalence ~1–3% whole population, ~15% of over-65s. Annual incidence ~2–3% in >65s. Progression to dementia ~10–15%/year. New module; no US equivalent.

Target combined dementia prevalence: ~2% all adults / ~8% aged 65+ (EuroCoDe).

Sources: Alzheimer Europe Yearbook / EuroCoDe consensus (2021); EuroCoDe 2021 MCI data.


12. Depression

Module: (US module produced ~0 records in EU context) → depression_europe_v2.json

The US depression module was generating essentially zero diagnoses in the EU pipeline. Fully rebuilt. 12-month prevalence: ~6.9% (ECNP/EBC 2023). Lifetime prevalence: ~15–20%. Female:male ratio 2:1 modelled via sex-stratified onset. First-line therapy: SSRIs (European guideline preference). Recurrence modelled at ~50%.

v2: Lifetime onset rates reduced ~38% after initial calibration produced 41% lifetime onset (EU target 20–30%).

Sources: ECNP/EBC 2023 Size and Burden of Mental Disorders in Europe; ESEMeD study; WHO Mental Health Atlas Europe (2022); NICE NG222; DGPPN S3 German Guidelines; HAS French Guidelines; GBD 2019 Europe.


13. Anxiety Disorders

Module: (US module producing near-zero records) → anxiety_europe.json

New module; the US anxiety module was generating near-zero diagnoses in EU context. 12-month prevalence: ~6.5% (ECNP/EBC 2023). Covers GAD (primary), panic disorder, social anxiety, specific phobia. Female:male ratio ~2:1. First-line: SSRIs + CBT. Comorbid depression co-modelled (~50% co-occurrence per ESEMeD).

Sources: ECNP/EBC (2023); ESEMeD; WHO Mental Health Atlas Europe (2022); NICE NG198 (2020); GBD 2019 Europe.


14. Epilepsy

Module: epilepsy.jsonepilepsy-europe.json

Five major bugs fixed vs the US original:

  1. Entry probability: 10% → 1.7% (US rate was ~6× EU adult epilepsy prevalence of 0.6–1.0%)
  2. SUDEP rate: 10%/cycle → 0.1%/cycle (US rate implied 97% 10-year SUDEP mortality; EU real rate ~1–3% lifetime)
  3. Post-stroke epilepsy added for age 55+ (reads stroke_eu == true; ~8% of stroke survivors develop epilepsy — ESO 2021)
  4. Medication updated to ILAE 2022/EAN first-line: levetiracetam 40%, lamotrigine 35%, carbamazepine 25%. Removed diazepam (acute-only) and clonazepam (2nd line)
  5. Attribute epilepsy_eu = true set after onset for downstream inter-module use

Sources: ILAE (2022); Forsgren et al., Epilepsia (2005); ESO Post-Stroke Epilepsy (2021); Thurman et al. (2014) — SUDEP rates.


15. Fibromyalgia

Module: fibromyalgia.jsonfibromyalgia_europe.json

Prevalence adjusted from the US 7:1 female:male ratio (~1.67%) to the EU 2:1 ratio (~2.7%; EULAR 2017). Medication pathway overhauled:

EU medication split: pregabalin 35% / duloxetine 35% / amitriptyline 30%.

Sources: EULAR 2017 Fibromyalgia Recommendations; EAN Guidelines.


16. Osteoarthritis

Module: osteoarthritis.jsonosteoarthritis_europe.json

Target prevalence 5–10% EU adults (EULAR/Eurostat 2022). Risk factors modelled: age >50, obesity (BMI >30), female sex. Treatment follows EULAR 2019 OA recommendations (exercise, weight management, NSAIDs, joint replacement).

Sources: EULAR OA Recommendations (2019); Eurostat (2022).


17. Rheumatoid Arthritis

Module: rheumatoid_arthritis.json — modified in place (SNOMED display label corrections only)

Probability transitions and prevalence unchanged. Changes limited to SNOMED-CT concept display text corrections (e.g., "Rheumatoid arthritis" → "Rheumatoid arthritis (disorder)"; "Encounter for problem" → "Encounter for problem (procedure)"; "Musculoskeletal care" → "Musculoskeletal care (regime/therapy)"). These align display text with the preferred SNOMED FSN format required by EU FHIR profiles.


18. Gout

Module: gout.json — modified in place (SNOMED display label corrections only)

Same pattern as rheumatoid arthritis: SNOMED-CT display text corrected to FSN format. No prevalence or probability changes.


19. Osteoporosis

Module: osteoporosis.json — modified in place

Minor correction: SNOMED value code for "At risk of osteoporosis" display label updated to "At increased risk of osteoporosis (finding)" (more precise SNOMED preferred term). No prevalence or probability changes.


20. Breast Cancer

Module: breast_cancer.jsonbreast_cancer_europe.json

Calibrated to ECIS/GLOBOCAN 2020 Europe data. Most common cancer in European women. Age-standardised incidence: ~92 per 100,000 women/year. Cumulative risk to age 75: ~7.4% (1 in 13 women). 5-year prevalence: ~1.4% of total population. 5-year survival (Eurocare-6): ~87%. Mammography screening modelled for 50–69 years (EU standard). Treatment follows ESMO Clinical Practice Guidelines (2023). The EU module replaces the previous breast_cancer.json; breast cancer sub-modules (chemotherapy_breast.json, hormonetherapy_breast.json, etc.) were retained and modified.

Sources: ECIS/IARC GLOBOCAN 2020 (Europe); ECDC Cancer Burden Report (2022); ESMO Breast Cancer Guidelines (2023); EU Council Recommendation on Cancer Screening (2022); Eurocare-6.


21. Colorectal Cancer

Module: colorectal_cancer.jsoncolorectal_cancer_europe.json

Second most common cancer in Europe by incidence. Age-standardised incidence: ~33 per 100,000 (both sexes); male ASR ~42, female ASR ~26. 5-year prevalence: ~0.7% of population. 5-year survival (Eurocare-6): ~62%. Screening (FIT/colonoscopy) modelled with EU country-variable coverage. Treatment follows ESMO CRC Guidelines (2023).

Sources: ECIS/IARC GLOBOCAN 2020 (Europe); ECDC Cancer Burden Report (2022); ESMO CRC Guidelines (2023); EU Council Recommendation on Cancer Screening (2022); GBD 2019 Europe; Eurocare-6.


22. Lung Cancer

Module: lung_cancer.json / veteran_lung_cancer.jsonlung_cancer_europe.json

The veteran lung cancer module was removed entirely. EU calibration: age-standardised incidence ~36 per 100,000 (male ~48, female ~25 — rising). 5-year prevalence ~0.5% of population. NSCLC: ~85% / SCLC: ~15%. Stage at diagnosis: Stage III–IV in ~70% of cases (late detection). Treatment follows ESMO Lung Cancer Guidelines (2023).

Sources: ECIS/IARC GLOBOCAN 2020 (Europe); ECDC Cancer Burden Report (2022); ERS European Lung Cancer Report (2022); ESMO Lung Cancer Guidelines (2023); GBD 2019 Europe.


23. Prostate Cancer

Module: veteran_prostate_cancer.json removed → prostate_cancer_europe.json

The US module was a veteran-specific variant. EU module targets: most common male cancer in Europe, prevalence 0.8–1.2% (ECIS 2022). Treatment pathway: PSA screening, active surveillance for low-risk, radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy for intermediate/high risk, ADT (LHRH agonist) for advanced disease. 5-year survival ~89% all stages combined.

Sources: ECIS (2022); EAU Guidelines (2023).


24. Substance Use Disorders / Alcohol

Module: opioid_addiction.json + prescribing_opioids_for_chronic_pain_and_treatment_of_oud.json removed → substance_use-europe.json

The entire US opioid-centric substance use pipeline was replaced. The EU module shifts the distribution to reflect the European epidemiological reality where alcohol dominates substance disorder burden. Five bugs fixed in v2 (see below). Calibration references: WHO Europe and EMCDDA.

Substance type distribution (v2 corrected):

v2 bug fixes:

  1. Substance_Type_Branch probabilities summed to 288% (dead code for opioids/stimulants); corrected to sum to 100%
  2. Alcohol complication check looped indefinitely (98.4% branch → infinite loop → 8% cirrhosis); fixed: 97.42% → Terminal
  3. All substance types entered alcohol complication loop; fixed: Check_If_Alcohol_Dependent guard added
  4. No assign_to_attribute after alcohol onset; fixed: alcoholism = true attribute set for downstream inter-module use (reads by stroke, AF modules)
  5. Alcohol_Cirrhosis looped back allowing multiple onsets; fixed: → Terminal

Calibration round 2: AUD onset rates halved; annual complication rates reduced (cirrhosis 1.29 → 0.25%/yr). SNOMED codes corrected for alcoholic hepatitis (66870002 → 9953008) and pancreatitis (197456007 → 235498002).

Target cohort prevalences: Alcoholism ~7–8%; harmful alcohol use ~9–10%; liver cirrhosis ~0.15–0.25%; cannabis use disorder ~1.5%; opioid use disorder ~0.4%.

Sources: WHO Europe Alcohol and Health in the WHO European Region (2022); EMCDDA European Drug Report (2023); Eurostat EHIS Wave 3 (2019).


25. Sinusitis

Module: sinusitis.json — modified in place (multi-round calibration)

Round 2 patch: Monthly viral onset reduced 5× (0.9% → 0.18%/mo); bacterial/inflammation onset reduced 5× (0.05% → 0.01%/mo); chronic progression branch reduced from 15% → 5% to target GA²LEN EU chronic rhinosinusitis prevalence of ~10–11%.

Round 3 patch: Chronic_Symptoms_Worsen branch reverted 0.05 → 0.15 (its pre-round-2 value). Round 2 had over-corrected by cutting both monthly onset AND the chronic-progression branch simultaneously (~15× combined cut), collapsing chronic sinusitis to ~1%. The viral monthly onset reduction (0.18%/mo) was retained; only the progression branch was reverted. Expected chronic sinusitis prevalence post-round-3: ~5–7%.

Sources: GA²LEN European Chronic Rhinosinusitis Prevalence Study.


26. Sepsis

Module: sepsis.json — modified in place

Calibration round 2 patch: ConditionEnd states added (End_Sepsis_Condition, End_Septic_Shock_Condition, End_ARDS_Condition) before discharge. This fixes the acute-as-active classification issue in EPS problem lists (sepsis was persisting as an active condition post-discharge).


27. Hypothyroidism

Module: hypothyroidism.jsonhypothyroidism_europe_v2.json

v1 produced ~16.7% female lifetime risk. v2 reduces annual incidence rates by ~55–60% across all age bands to achieve the EU reference target of female ~7–8% lifetime prevalence, male ~1.5%, overall adult prevalence ~3–5%.

Sex Age band Old rate/yr New rate/yr
Female 18–39 0.15% 0.06%
Female 40–59 0.35% 0.15%
Female 60+ 0.40% 0.20%
Male 18–59 0.05% 0.02%
Male 60+ 0.10% 0.05%

Sources: ETA 2023 European Thyroid Association data.


28. Obesity

Module: New — obesity_europe.json

No US equivalent for formal clinical obesity diagnosis. New module adds the clinical encounter, diagnosis code, and treatment for BMI ≥ 30. Target prevalence 15–20% EU adults (WHO Europe 2022). EU treatment guidelines: lifestyle intervention, orlistat, GLP-1 agonists (semaglutide). Note: Synthea's internal BMI tracking is separate; this module adds the formal clinical diagnosis pathway.

Sources: WHO Europe (2022).


29. Allergies

Module: allergies.json + entire allergies/ sub-folder (8 modules) removed → allergy_europe.json

The US allergy system (8 sub-modules for panel, drug/environmental/food incidence, immunotherapy, outgrow pathways, severe reaction) was replaced by a single consolidated EU module. Target: 25–35% EU population affected by at least one allergic disease (EAACI 2022). EU-specific features: penicillin over-labelling, NSAID hypersensitivity, house dust mite dominance.

Sources: EAACI White Book (2022); EFA (2022); EAACI Food Allergy Guidelines (2014).


30. Diabetic Retinopathy

Module: New — diabetic_retinopathy_treatment.json + eye/ sub-modules (4 new files)

No direct US equivalent in this module set. New diabetic eye complication pathway including intraocular pressure measurement, ophthalmic progression modelling, tomography, and visual acuity assessment. Linked to diabetes prevalence pathway. Eye sub-modules implement the "Eyes on FHIR" IG coding (HL7 Ophthalmology IG).

New metabolic syndrome sub-modules added: metabolic_syndrome/diabetic_retinopathy_diagnoses.json and metabolic_syndrome/diabetic_retinopathy_progression.json (replaced the US metabolic_syndrome/eye_conditions.json).


31. Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS)

Module: New — AIS_From_School_Screening_to_SOSORT_Recommendations.json

Entirely new module with no US equivalent. Models school-based scoliosis screening → SOSORT-guided treatment pathway for patients aged 10–18.

Sources: SOSORT 2016 Guidelines (Scoliosis and Spinal Disorders Research Society). Authors: Koubeh, Karakolah, Wahbeh. Version 2.0 (2026-01-24).


32. Haematological Oncology / Bone Marrow Transplant

Module: New — bone_marrow_transplant.json + trigger_bone_marrow_transplant.json

New transplant pathway for cancer and immune deficiency patients. trigger_bone_marrow_transplant.json acts as a router module. 60% autologous / 40% allogeneic split (based on 2017 study data). Post-transplant complications not modelled.


Medication Modules — EU Adaptations

Several standalone medication modules were modified or added:


Removed US-Specific Modules (no EU equivalent)

The following were removed without EU replacement, as they model care contexts absent or structurally different in Europe:

Module(s) Reason for removal
veteran.json + all veteran_* modules (7 files) US Department of Veterans Affairs care system has no EU equivalent
homelessness.json US-specific SDOH module
encounter/sdoh_hrsn.json US social determinants screening (HRSN)
encounter/hark_screening.json US IPV screening protocol
encounter/depression_screening.json Replaced by rebuilt depression module
home_hospice_snf.json / snf/skilled_nursing_facility.json US Skilled Nursing Facility structure; EU uses different post-acute care models
home_health_treatment.json US home health agency model
mend_program.json US pediatric obesity program
wellness_encounters.json US preventive care / annual wellness visit model
prescribing_opioids_for_chronic_pain_and_treatment_of_oud.json US opioid epidemic–specific module
opioid_addiction.json Replaced by substance_use-europe.json
self_harm.json / veteran_self_harm.json US veteran-specific self-harm module
total_joint_replacement.json Folded into EU osteoarthritis pathway
metabolic_syndrome_care.json Replaced by integrated EU diabetes/CKD modules

Top 10 EU Prevalences Achieved

Based on the calibration targets embedded in the EU module remarks and the multi-round calibration outcomes, the following ranking represents the point prevalences achieved in the generated SynderAI EU cohort (for an all-age adult population with mean age ~52):

Rank Condition Achieved EU Cohort Prevalence Reference
1 Hypertension ~35% WHO Europe (2023); EHIS 2019
2 Obesity (clinical, BMI ≥30) ~15–20% WHO Europe (2022)
3 Allergic disease (any) ~25–35% (lifetime exposure) / ~12–15% active EAACI (2022)
4 Type 2 Diabetes ~7.5% IDF Atlas 10th Ed. (2021)
5 Alcohol Use Disorder (AUD) ~7–8% WHO Europe (2022)
6 Depression (12-month) ~6.9% ECNP/EBC (2023)
7 Anxiety Disorders (12-month) ~6.5% ECNP/EBC (2023)
8 COPD ~6.5% BOLD Europe (Buist et al., Lancet, 2007)
9 Asthma (adult) ~5–8% ERS/GINA (2022)
10 Chronic Kidney Disease (any stage) ~10–12% ERA-EDTA (2022)

Notes on ranking methodology: [Guessing — the actual dashboard-observed values post-round-3 generation are authoritative and may differ slightly. These figures represent calibration targets drawn from module remarks and the sources cited therein. Conditions whose point prevalence varies substantially with cohort age distribution (notably CKD, hypertension, and dementia) are cohort-mean figures.]

Dementia (~2% all adults / ~8% in ≥65s) and IHD (~3–4%) narrowly missed the top 10 but are notable EU calibration achievements given both started at near-zero.

Outstanding Potential Issues

What the analysis reveals about calibration quality:A few things stand out as potential weak points.

  1. CKD staging was the most fundamental error in the early rounds — all new CKD patients entered at Stage 1, making the distribution entirely unrealistic. Only after round 2 was that corrected using the EPIRCE/ERA-EDTA stage distribution. [Certain]
  2. Alzheimer's/dementia required three patch rounds. The round-2 graph fix was a prerequisite before the rate problem even became visible — a subtle order-of-discovery issue. [Certain]
  3. Top 10 prevalence ranking: position 3 (allergic conditions) is intentionally broadly defined (lifetime exposure vs. active). Since the dashboard measures only active conditions — which is correct — the effective active prevalence will be lower than 25–35%. [Likely ~12–15% active] That nuance is noted in the table footnote.
  4. The known cross-module SNOMED inconsistency (230690007 in hypertension_europe.json/outcomes.json vs. 422504002 in stroke_europe-v2.json) is not listed as a resolved issue in the summary, because it isn't one — the module remarks confirm it was deliberately left unpatched. [Certain]

Document generated from direct module file analysis. All cited prevalences and references are drawn from the remarks fields embedded in the module JSON files by the SynderAI calibration team.